Forex

US Dollar Index & major currency pairs — daily rates via FRED & Stooq

DXY

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Dollar Index

EUR/USD

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EURUSD

USD/JPY

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USDJPY

GBP/USD

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GBPUSD

AUD/USD

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AUDUSD

US Dollar Index (DXY)

ICE DXY — 2-year daily history with 200-day MA

DXY — US Dollar Index

ICE US Dollar Index — 2-year daily history

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● Above 200 MA — Strong Dollar● Below 200 MA — Weak Dollar

Source: ICE via Yahoo Finance (DX-Y.NYB)

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD & AUD/USD — 1-year daily closes via Stooq / FRED

Educational panel — USD behaviour across macro regimes

Dollar Smile Framework

Stephen Jen's model for USD strength across macro regimes

RISK-OFF
USD soars (safe haven)

MILD GROWTH
USD weakens (carry flows out)

STRONG GROWTH
USD rises (rate differentials)

Left peak — Risk-Off / Recession

Global panic drives USD demand. Investors exit risky assets, buy Treasuries. Carry trades unwind violently. DXY surges regardless of US fundamentals.

Trough — Mild/Synchronised Global Growth

Relative US outperformance fades. Capital flows to higher-yielding EM & risk assets. USD weakens as investors reduce USD overweights.

Right peak — US Outperformance

US economy accelerates faster than peers. Fed tightens while others ease. Rate differentials attract capital inflows. DXY strengthens.

Framework: Stephen Jen (Morgan Stanley, 2001) — Illustrative, not predictive