Economic Indicators

Inflation, employment, output & leading signals — US macro via FRED

Inflation

CPI, Core CPI, Core PCE and PPI year-over-year percentage change. Fed target: 2% Core PCE.

CPI YoY

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MoM —

Core CPI YoY

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MoM —

Core PCE YoY

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Fed target: 2%

PPI YoY

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Producer prices

Inflation — Year-over-Year %

CPI, Core CPI, Core PCE, PPI — monthly YoY % change

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Source: FRED: CPIAUCSL, CPILFESL, PCEPILFE, PPIACO

Employment

Labor market conditions — unemployment, payrolls, jobless claims, participation rate.

Unemployment

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NFP MoM

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Init. Claims

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LFPR

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Labor force participation

Unemployment Rate

Seasonally adjusted — ~4% considered natural rate

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Source: FRED: UNRATE

Nonfarm Payrolls MoM

Monthly change in total nonfarm employment (thousands)

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Source: FRED: PAYEMS

Initial Jobless Claims

Weekly initial unemployment claims (thousands) + 4-week moving average

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Source: FRED: ICSA

Labor Force Participation Rate

Share of civilian non-institutional population in labor force

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Source: FRED: CIVPART

Output & Sentiment

Manufacturing activity, industrial production, consumer sentiment, and retail spending.

Mfg Confidence

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Ind. Prod YoY

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Michigan Sent.

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Consumer confidence

Retail Sales MoM

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OECD Mfg Business Confidence

OECD Business Tendency Survey — above 0 = positive sentiment, below 0 = negative

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Source: FRED: BSCICP02USM460S

Industrial Production YoY

Year-over-year % change in industrial output index

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Source: FRED: INDPRO

Michigan Consumer Sentiment

University of Michigan survey — index of consumer confidence

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Source: FRED: UMCSENT

Retail Sales MoM

Advance retail sales month-over-month % change

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Source: FRED: RSXFS

PMI / Business Activity

Free proxy: OECD Manufacturing Business Confidence via FRED (0-centered, above 0 = expanding). ISM and S&P Global 50-threshold PMI require subscriptions — open the links below to view live charts.

US Mfg Confidence

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US Manufacturing Business Confidence (OECD)

OECD Business Tendency Survey — 0-centered scale. Above 0 = expanding, below 0 = contracting. Free proxy for ISM Manufacturing PMI.

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Source: FRED: BSCICP02USM460S (OECD Business Tendency Survey)

Manufacturing

US Business Confidence

Trading Economics

US Manufacturing PMI — 50-threshold benchmark. Above 50 = expanding, below 50 = contracting.

Services

US Non-Manufacturing PMI

Trading Economics

ISM Services / Non-Manufacturing PMI. Covers the services sector of the US economy.

Leading Indicators

Forward-looking signals — yield curve inversions and Chicago Fed broad activity index.

10Y-2Y Spread

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10Y-3M Spread

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CFNAI

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Yield Curve Spreads

10Y-2Y and 10Y-3M Treasury spreads — inversion (below zero) historically precedes recession

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Source: FRED (T10Y2Y, T10Y3M)

Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)

Above 0 = above-trend growth. Below −0.7 over 3 months signals possible recession.

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Source: FRED: CFNAI